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Saturday, July 7, 2012

Wimbledon 2012: Federer Versus Murray - Finals Preview


Roger Federer, the six time champion will take on the first time finalist Andy Murray in the finals on Sunday, the 8th July. Federer defeated Novak Djokovic in four sets whereas Murray prevailed over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga also in four sets in the semi-finals. They have played each other fifteen times with Murray leading 8-7. However, Federer has defeated Murray in straight sets in the two Grand Slam majors they have played, both being the finals.

In the semi-finals, Federer served first serves at 64%, whereas Murray served at 60%. The figure has varied for Federer between 62% and 70%, whereas for Murray it has varied from 60% to 67% during the six matches played. The first serve percentage for Murray is likely to improve in the finals from the semi-finals where the first serve percentage was his lowest. Federer served 12 aces in 19 service games whereas Murray served 9 aces in 20 service games in the semi-finals. However, this is not a comparison since aces also depend upon the returning capability of the opponent and Djokovic is known to be a better returner than Tsonga. It can at best be taken as an indicator of the confidence of the server in his serve capabilities. Federer has served brilliantly in the semi-finals.  

It has been heard in the past that Murray plays two types of games, one that takes him up to the finals of a Grand Slam major and the other which makes him lose the finals. This might have come from both detractors as well as ardent fans of Murray. Ever since the hiring of Ivan Lendl as coach, the audience has been keenly observing the changes, if any, which have occurred in Murray’s game. If they have not been able to discover much, it can be condoned since if it were true, coaching schools will start getting undue share of credit or blame for the performance of the player. In any case, a battle scarred Murray might not have hands of butter in the finals.

Federer not only served brilliantly but played an attacking game without committing many errors in the semi-finals. He dictated the play and Djokovic fell into a trap to play at his pace. Rafael Nadal always plays at his own pace and does not succumb to Federer’s style. Federer is a fast starter and before the opponent realises, he is generally a break up. Murray is a slow starter generally, though he surprised all by going for the kill from the start against Tsonga. He was a slow starter in his previous matches. In the quarterfinals against David Ferrer, he was constantly trailing in the first two sets. It was possible to come back against Ferrer, but against Federer, yielding an inch would be like yielding a yard. Since Murray does not have put away weapons, he has to play all points as match points. Even a temporary dip in the level of play can cause irreversible damage. This did happen in his match against Tsonga, who stole the third set and gained in confidence. Federer is not as vulnerable since he has lethal weapons. He has a significantly wider margin for error and much greater capability for recovering from a losing position. Murray not only has to shut the door but has to keep it shut till the very end.

Federer’s losses apart from Nadal and Djokovic have been mostly to players who hit the ball hard. There is something common between Juan Martin Del Potro, Tomas Berdych, Robin Soderling and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Murray does not have that weaponry. His eight victories over Federer to seven losses cannot be taken as shining beacons per se, but they might serve effectively to devise a game plan. It is a common knowledge that Federer is a different player in Grand Slam majors. His match temperament is unmatched. He is focused and is well aware of the golden opportunity that has presented itself with ouster of Rafael Nadal in the early rounds. On the other hand, Murray is carrying a lot of burden, irrespective of whatever he or others might say in public. The expression on his face and the body language after victory in the semi-finals can be revisited to confirm this.

Federer is a front runner. Even against Nadal, he is the one who gets the break point first. Djokovic could not prevent it in the semi-finals, but Julien Benneteau was successful in the second round to go two sets up. It is difficult to see Murray doing a Benneteau, though he can be as much inspired. Benneteau had nothing to lose, whereas the stakes are much higher for Murray. He also has the burden of criticism that he is not aggressive. If his priority gets displaced to answer that criticism rather than playing to win, it would be suicidal. He will definitely not come out with a defeatist attitude that one could sense in Xavier Malisse or Mikhail Youzhny, but also not with the confidence of Rafael Nadal. He will try to make amends to his previous meetings with Federer in the Grand Slam majors by being more motivated and hard working.

Federer’s semi-final was played with roof closed and Murray’s semi-final was in open condition. Closed roof might give some advantage to Federer, who has always excelled in indoor type of conditions. Open roof will provide a level playing field.  

Federer is the favourite to win his seventeenth Grand Slam major, but Murray will let him win it only “over my dead body”. If Murray puts in an inspired performance, he would be the last man standing.

Thursday, July 5, 2012

Wimbledon 2012: Murray Versus Tsonga - Preview


Andy Murray and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga clash in the semi-finals on Friday, the 6th July on the centre court of Wimbledon. The last time they played each other at Wimbledon was in the quarterfinals of the 2010 edition which Murray won in four sets. Overall they have played six times with Tsonga defeating Murray in the first round of the Australian Open, 2010, the year he reached the finals of a Grand Slam major for the first time. Murray has been victorious on all other occasions.

Murray has come out from the quarter of death in this Wimbledon by playing his trade mark gritty tennis, cautious to the core but willing to take chances after jabbing for a while. The four sets that went for almost four hours in the quarterfinals are the tell tale signs of the mental struggle Murray would have undergone where he wanted to win, but only after ensuring that he did not lose. Position is not going to get any different in the next match that follows, with the finishing line in sight.

Tsonga is a different player than Ferrer. If you want to see tenacity, watch matches of Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer or Murray. If you want to see flamboyance, see the matches of Roger Federer or Tsonga. There is a subtle difference between Federer and Tsonga. Federer employs tennis mind in his game plan, whereas Tsonga plays from the heart. When he gets to winning, he goes on winning and when he gets to losing, he goes on losing. This could as well be one of the consequences of not having a coach. Many a time, it has looked as if Tsonga does not have Plan B in his kit. Murray’s position is different. He has many plans, but sometimes does not decide correctly which plan to employ. If one did not have a variety of shots, mind body co-ordination is easier. But if one has many weapons in the repertoire, which one to use and when, could become a difficult decision. It is seen clearly in a match where the player suddenly plays a drop shot on a break point when he should have rather played a safer shot. It was visible in the match between Murray and Ferrer. Tsonga too is a fast mover like Ferrer though with lesser anticipation. He can reach the drop shot unless it is well disguised, though he does not play the return that well.

Murray served below 60% in the first three sets against Ferrer and that was one of the reasons for his struggle in the beginning. Tsonga has edge over him in the serve department. He will get quite a few free points in spite of Murray being an excellent returner. Murray too will get a few free points since Tsonga is not that good a returner. Murray has a consistent backhand which can take care of Tsonga’s usual inside out forehand. Tsonga scored many points from the single fisted backhand of Phillip Kohlschriber, which will not happen with Murray.

Ferrer had defeated Murray five times in ten matches before the quarterfinals but against Tsonga, it is Murray who has won five times in six matches. This shows that Murray’s game matches up better with Tsonga. The reasons are not difficult to comprehend. Tsonga does not have that good a defence. He prospers against attackers, but can falter against those who slug it out from the baseline without many errors. Murray is basically a defensive player who changes into attack mode only after constructing gaps.  Sometimes, a passive approach may turn out to be the winning strategy, especially against players who commit numerous unforced errors in long drawn rallies. Murray appears to be stronger in basics. However, his basics sometimes falter when he feels the pressure. He might start slowly, and a point will come when his mind will relax and he will start playing freely. When will that point of time come, cannot be predicted. If Murray has to win, it should come sooner than later.

Tsonga is a type of player who is conscious of the crowd support. He is not like Federer, Novak Djokovic or Nadal who can shut their mind to the mob music. He performs better with cheers and not as well with jeers. If he is predisposed to losing focus, it can come any time in the pressure cooker type of atmosphere that is likely to prevail on the centre court.

Tsonga might be forced into high risk play where probability of failure is greater. If that happens, Murray might live another day to let his fans light a candle one more time.

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Wimbledon 2012: Murray Versus Ferrer - Preview

Andy Murray takes on a revenge match against David Ferrer in the quarterfinals on Wednesday, July 04, 2012. It is a repeat of their encounter at the same stage in the French Open last month which Ferrer won in four sets. It is a different tournament, a different surface and different surroundings. The home conditions would put pressure on the home kid whereas the opponent would come with nothing to lose advantage. In the other scenario, the energy in the stands can get transferred to the son of the soil and could catch on the nerves of the opponent.

Both the players grind their matches, Murray less so these days. They can run marathon on the court without tiring. Both play similar styles of tennis, only that Murray is not a robot. If a man plays a robot, who wins. This question was answered in the French Open, but in the repeat match, robot would not change, whereas the man would have thought over the necessary adjustments. Serve or receive, Ferrer would start a rally and keep on retrieving the balls. He has a tendency to induce impatience in his opponent. In the previous round, it was Juan Martin Del Potro who could not resist going for a winner and since Ferrer was everywhere, he had to go into the tramlines or beyond baseline, where Ferrer was not there. This is bound to happen again, since Murray thinks he has better tennis IQ. It indeed might be true, but then you are playing into Ferrer’s game plan. How many game plans Murray would bring to the court has to be seen. One or two will not suffice. Murray has quite a few, but whether he would choose the right one is the million dollar question, or might as well be 1.1 million pound. At the extreme end, he can play the Ferrer type of game better than him since he has better anticipation and equal mobility. He can play his cat and mouse game, which can succeed against a player of Ferrer’s calibre. On the other extreme, he can employ attacking game that derailed Rafael Nadal in the Australian Open 2010 before the latter retired.

Neither Murray nor Ferrer will give up. Nerves could catch up with Murray, not with Ferrer, but Murray can put up an inspired performance whereas Ferrer is likely to play the only game he knows. The result is on the racquet of Murray.

Wimbledon 2012: Djokovic Versus Mayer - Preview


Novak Djokovic will face Florian Mayer in the quarterfinals on Wednesday, the 4th July. They have met once before with Djokovic emerging triumphant in straight sets. In the fourth round, Djokovic easily defeated Viktor Troicki in straight sets. Florian Mayer defeated Richard Gasquet in four sets.  

Mayer does not send a decent percentage of first serves. It often remains below 60%. In the previous match against Richard Gasquet, it just touched 60%. Moreover, his second serve is rather weak. Djokovic being the best returner of serve, it is doubtful whether Mayer will score many points on his second serve.

Both Mayer and Djokovic are fast starters. The real match will start from the first ball itself. Both play attacking tennis, though Djokovic has highly controlled aggression. His defence is so good that he can turn into a solid defender on break points and transform himself suddenly into offence whenever the opportunity presents itself. When ahead, he creates opportunities to attack himself. His construction of point is based on risk taking while continuing to play percentage tennis. Mayer, on the other hand, might go for high risk game if he starts losing with his normal game. He has an excellent forehand, but his net clearance is rather low which makes it vulnerable to errors if the set up is not complete. His unforced errors are unlikely to be as low as in the game against Gasquet. However, he has variety on game and an element of surprise in shot making. He can slice low and deny pace to Djokovic, something Alexandr Dolgopolov does. He is not shy of coming to the net. He can hit winner from nowhere, exactly like Djokovic does to others. His backhand, like that of Djokovic, is very good. However, he will find it difficult to control the point from his end and many a time, may have to go for counterpunching. Djokovic does not hit many shots just to remain in the point. He is the one who likes to pull the first trigger, and he does it on many occasions during a single rally.  

Mayer can win if he plays like how Lukas Rosol played to Rafael Nadal. In the normal course, he does not have wherewithal to stop Djokovic.

Monday, July 2, 2012

Wimbledon 2012: Federer Versus Youzhny - Preview


Roger Federer takes on Mikhail Youzhny in the quarterfinals on Wednesday, the 4th July. They have met thirteen times and Federer never had any difficulty in coming out victorious. Can Youzhny pull it off the fourteenth time?

Federer had back trouble in his previous match against Xavier Malisse and had to take treatment inside during the first set itself. He has a rest day on Tuesday. Youzhny was taken to five sets by Denis Istomin in the fourth round and he too will benefit from the rest day. In spite of the back trouble, Federer had no trouble against Malisse who appeared handcuffed by the defeatist attitude throughout. He belongs to that era when opponents felt defeated even before stepping into the court against Federer. After nine straight defeats, he had a chance to turn it round against a less than fit Federer. He put on a lackluster performance on the centre court. Youzhny also belongs to the same era. He, like Federer, is thirty years of age. He too is single fisted backhander like Federer. He plays the same way as Federer, only a level below. There is no shot or any aspect of game in which he excels Federer. There was a time when spectators did not come to see as to who between Federer and the challenger will win, but to see what fight the challenger would give before losing. It might turn out to be a similar story this time. Youzhny cannot do a Lukas Rosol since he does not have any weapon to do that. Even if he becomes as much inspired, he can at best take a set.

If Youzhny has to win, Federer will have to be either unfit or play at half his potential. Otherwise, we can presume that Federer already has a leg in the semi-finals.