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Saturday, April 20, 2013

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters Finals Preview: Nadal Versus Djokovic


In a repeat of last year’s final, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will clash for the title on Sunday, the 21st April. Djokovic rolled over Fabio Fognini 6-2 6-1 whereas Nadal fought a spirited late challenge from Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to pip him in the second set tie break 7-3 after having been up 5-1 at one time. Nadal is feeling nerves in this tournament and was also tight against Grigor Dimitrov in the quarter-finals where he was extended to three sets. Djokovic too was extended to three sets in the second and third rounds but has peaked well to play his usual impregnable tennis. Nadal leads the head to head meetings 19-14 but is 3-7 since Djokovic came in version 2.0 in 2011.

Having played single fisted backhanders in Grigor Dimitrov and Philipp Kohlshreiber in quarterfinals and pre-quarterfinals, Nadal is playing his predictable game of forehand crosscourt from the back of the court. This is the one which led to a series of defeats against Djokovic in 2011 and will continue to be so unless he changes to a balanced attack on both the flanks. The predictable serve to the T from the deuce court will have to change to about 30-40 percent wide serves too. Nadal is yet to develop high kicking wide serve from the deuce court and his wide serve from ad court poses problems only to the single fisted backhanders. Djokovic has the best backhand in the business and if Dimitrov was not troubled by the wide serves, there is little reason to expect that Djokovic would be. Nadal must be aware of that and perhaps we would see more balls from Nadal to the forehand than so far in this tournament.

Djokovic will continue to exploit the backhand of Nadal and try to take advantage of the short returns. Djokovic has better attack than his peers and if he comes with a determination to chase down every ball, he would be equally good in defence. If the conditions are not warm enough to provide extra kick to the high spin balls form Nadal’s forehand, Djokovic can have upper hand in the rallies. Nadal is not playing an aggressive brand of tennis. Otherwise too, in their match up, Djokovic is the one who goes for the kill first. Nadal chases all balls of Djokovic and returns them in a defensive fashion. If these returns are not deep, Djokovic will smother them for winners. One is bound to see the famous return of serves to the feet of the opponent from Djokovic. One-two combination will be seen more from Djokovic side since he possesses a better serve. Nadal is putting in a high percentage of first serves to compensate for lack of bite on his first serve.

Nadal is the king of clay, but law of averages will catch up with him eventually. Djokovic lost at the same stage last year. It is his turn to win. Nadal can defy the law of averages if he returns to the brand of aggressive tennis taking aggressive position up in the middle of court behind his wide serve. It is a fifty-fifty position with whoever plays better on the day, taking away the honours.  

Friday, April 19, 2013

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters 2013 Semi-Finals: Nadal Versus Tsonga - Preview



Rafael Nadal meets Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the semi-finals on Saturday, the 20th April. Both were extended to the maximum in the quarter-finals and came out victor in three sets. The matches showed contest of the highest quality, particularly the one featuring Nadal and Grigor Dmitrov, the so called Baby Federer. He took full advantage of the passive play by Nadal and went on playing fearlessly for over two hours. In the end, it appeared to be his lack of fitness that contributed to the ultimate result. If Nadal was nervous, it was not palpable, but loss of a set on clay could have dented his confidence. He did not change his style till the very end which showed an assured state of mind.
Tsonga and Nadal have met on ten occasions with Nadal winning seven of them. In this clash, Tsonga will employ two types of strategies, one playing aggressively from the back court and the other coming to the net behind an aggressive shot on a short return from Nadal. As good as he is at the net, Tsonga will find a different type of passing shot from the other end. His volleying skills will be tested to the maximum. He cannot match Nadal in the defensive play from the back of the court. Nadal’s trademark cross court shots to the backhand of the opponent are going to cause some problems to Tsonga who does not boast of a backhand of the caliber of Novak Djokovic or David Nalbandian. His natural first serves from the ad court cause problems to the right handers but these would not be as effective against Nadal who likes to play a defensive return of serve from his forehand. Tsonga might not get as many aces on this side against Nadal. He will try to compensate this by serving wide from the deuce court. He will get shorter return from the backhand of Nadal, but the extra kick on them might induce a few errors too when Tsonga goes for the kill.
Nadal is employing his usual game where he is not aiming for too much on serve, but is rather trying to keep a high percentage of first serves in. It was 79% against Dmitrov. Tsonga does not have the x-factor against Nadal these days and is not expected to play a Rosol. He may win by playing aggressively, but then Nadal too will have to contribute by making high number of unforced errors. He committed 36 against Dmitrov while hitting only 18 winners. It is not definite that Tsonga will be able to take full advantage even in that scenario. Nadal tends to do well against established players but can get a surprise from the lower ranked players who come to face him with a “nothing to lose” attitude. Tsonga also makes a lot of unforced errors, mostly hitting out when going for something extra. He can stay in the rally against Nadal up to say ten shots, beyond which he is likely to be the loser. He therefore will have to produce a winner or force an error in about five of his shots. He has defeated Nadal on three occasions starting from the famous Australian Open, 2008. But that was hard court and Tsonga was as aggressive as a bull that the Spaniard could not tame. He has played Nadal only once on clay, and that was a straight three sets win in the Davis Cup tie in 2011 for Nadal.
If Tsonga were to lose, it would be caused by the superior defence of Nadal. If he were to win, it would a superlative controlled aggression from him, playing an all court game. Dice is loaded in Nadal’s favour.