Wimbledon 2011 Preview: Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer And Andy Murray Are The Contenders

The seeding and the draw is going to have a great say in making a prediction as to who is most likely to win Wimbledon 2011. If Roger Federer does not get number two seeding, he could fall in the Nadal’s half and that would seriously affect his chances. It may not matter as much to Djokovic who might prefer to play Nadal than Federer in the semi-finals.

When Nadal was winning only on clay, it was said that he was one dimensional and no match for Federer on other surfaces. He steadily improved and completed career slam and now the talk is that Federer is no match for Nadal in any Grand Slam. In the same way, Djokovic of today is different from that of yesteryears. It was a common sight to see him retire on health issues when trailing. Endurance and prolonged focus was not his forte. However, during the last six months, Djokovic has almost created history. This self belief perhaps started from his win over Federer in the last U.S Open. He said that he was swinging racquet with every ounce of energy in the late fourth and fifth sets. He has continued this type of hitting and now hits so many virtual winners in a single rally that even after absorbing some of them, the best movers capitulate ultimately to lose the rally. He is the master of baseline play today. It is he who controls the points in the rally. Nadal pulls trigger when in the best position on court but Djokovic goes on pulling trigger in any position and yet finds the ball falling within the lines. A match up in a Grand Slam with both Nadal and Djokovic playing at their best only will settle the issue, the same way it was settled between Nadal and Federer 2008 onwards. This is not to say that Djokovic will reach the milestones set up by Nadal or Federer, but Djokovic has certainly played like the top two player so far in 2011, notwithstanding his loss to Federer in the French Open. What devastation this loss has inflicted on him is yet to be seen. 

Roger Federer has resurrected his best form and is playing with more self belief. Barring Nadal, he perhaps thinks he is capable of beating any one. His back hand did not crumble against Nadal in the French Open and was almost as good as Nadal’s backhand. He confidently used backhand slice against Djokovic which he had stopped relying upon in the last few seasons. Continuous top spin from backhand, even on return of serve, was not succeeding previously. Slice and variation of pace induced errors from Djokovic who prefers to play the same type of shots from the baseline. At Wimbledon, a slice would pose even greater threat for such type of play. In the French Open finals, Federer made 41 approaches to the net in 44 games which he will have to repeat or exceed at Wimbledon.

Nadal’s form has dipped both in the hardware and the software. His forehand is going out more frequently and his backhand is more often going into the net. He has two games, the hard court game and the clay court game. The line between the two is getting blurred. and he is not sure what should be the swing, the net clearance and the power behind the shots. Earlier he used to win clay tournaments making few unforced errors and pulling trigger at a later stage in the rally. But that defensive game did not succeed on hard courts. He started standing nearer the baseline and hitting forehands with lesser top spin on hard courts. He performed much better and got career Grand Slam when he won the U.S Open in 2011. Now the dilemma appears to plague his instinctive play. He is consequently making more unforced errors by hitting out from the forehand side. His first serve speed in the finals at Roland Garros 2011 was 172 kmph as against 187 kmph in U.S.Open 2010. Nonetheless, Nadal playing at 75% is likely to win over most of the opponents.

The dark horse is Andy Murray who is capable of playing well before the home crowd. When he did that well on dirt, there is no reason why he can not be a serious challenger on the grass of his own backyard. His victory over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the finals of the Aegon Championship 2011 last Monday showed that he is there mentally and physically. There are two Murrays, one who plays in the earlier rounds and the other who plays in the final rounds. If both merge into the former, Andy Murray will be a serious contender to the throne. Whether this would happen, it would be known in three weeks time.