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Wednesday, June 6, 2012

French Open 2012: Federer Versus Djokovic - Preview


The revenge match between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer will take place on Friday, the 8th June to decide the finalist from the top half. It was at the same stage last year that Federer halted Djokovic’s incredible winning streak. The stakes are even higher this year with Djokovic slated to equal Rod Laver’s age old record of holding all the four Grand Slam trophies.

Djokovic appears to be peaking at the right time. It is debatable whether the two five setters in succession were good or detrimental to his chances. Federer too has been wading through troubled waters in quite a few of his matches. Both are battle hardened for the war on Friday.

Djokovic might engage him in backhand rallies since he has the best backhand in the game today and Federer does not score many winners from that flank. However, Federer can do many things from the backhand. His slice and variation of pace from that side does not give constant rhythm to his opponent and therefore those who thrive on rhythm, do not find them in their comfort zone. Djokovic thrives on rhythm and pace. He does not get that from players like Federer or Alexandr Dolgopolov.

Federer is a steady match player. His percentage of first serve is not going to get below 60% as happened against Juan Martin Del Potro. Djokovic being the best returner, will not let many aces past his racquet, but Federer will still manage a decent percentage of wins on first serves. Djokovic will fire less number of aces, but a higher percentage of wins on the first serve. While Djokovic uses return of serve as a weapon for scoring points, Federer is a more consistent returner of serve. Whether the ball is directed on his forehand or backhand, it goes back to land between the service line and the baseline.

Federer is more comfortable at the net than Djokovic and therefore he uses the length of the court more than others. Djokovic is a baseliner who uses the breadth of the court more to pound ground strokes. Federer will therefore play a more all court game, but whether that would be sufficient to repulse the precision and power from the other end is to be seen. Djokovic has restarted painting the sidelines with precision from the previous match against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and that is not good news for his opponents. Even a creative opponent like Federer can be reduced to chasing shadows all the time and get little breather to innovate on the court. Federer may not let that happen on a regular basis, especially on his own serve. He will set the pace of the point on serve and be the first to pull the trigger. He does not have that much precision as he had when he was a yard faster and therefore his count of unforced errors is more when on attack. He has good defence, but he does not play a defensive game like Rafael Nadal or Andy Murray. He takes position at the baseline and not far behind making it difficult for players like Djokovic and Murray to win points through drop shots.

Federer’s game may still be a mystery for many on the tour, but players like Djokovic and Nadal have played him so many times, that familiarity has set in. The backroom teams have dissected each and every aspect and developed strategies to counter them. Federer has not done as much as he mostly believes in his own game and tries to impose it on the day, win or lose. Many termed it as stubbornness when he was regularly losing to Nadal, but he has not changed much. Djokovic has bested clay courters in long rallies where his superior court coverage has given him better leverage in baseline exchanges. But Federer will not allow himself to be dragged in long rallies. He will try to end the rally within ten shots mostly. Since he gets the mental edge when up, Federer is likely to start faster than Djokovic. If he gets first set in his pocket, he will transform into a more confident player. If he has to win, it should be within four sets, for Djokovic has appeared invincible in the fifth set for the last eighteen months or so.  

When Federer defeated the invincible Djokovic last year in the semi-finals, some called it a once in life time performance by Federer. Can he repeat that performance? Yes, if only he lives twice; otherwise lightening does not strike twice.

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