Rafael
Nadal meets Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the semi-finals on Saturday, the 20th
April. Both were extended to the maximum in the quarter-finals and came out
victor in three sets. The matches showed contest of the highest quality,
particularly the one featuring Nadal and Grigor Dmitrov, the so called Baby
Federer. He took full advantage of the passive play by Nadal and went on
playing fearlessly for over two hours. In the end, it appeared to be his lack
of fitness that contributed to the ultimate result. If Nadal was nervous, it
was not palpable, but loss of a set on clay could have dented his confidence.
He did not change his style till the very end which showed an assured state of
mind.
Tsonga and
Nadal have met on ten occasions with Nadal winning seven of them. In this
clash, Tsonga will employ two types of strategies, one playing aggressively
from the back court and the other coming to the net behind an aggressive shot
on a short return from Nadal. As good as he is at the net, Tsonga will find a
different type of passing shot from the other end. His volleying skills will be
tested to the maximum. He cannot match Nadal in the defensive play from the
back of the court. Nadal’s trademark cross court shots to the backhand of the
opponent are going to cause some problems to Tsonga who does not boast of a backhand of
the caliber of Novak Djokovic or David Nalbandian. His natural first serves from
the ad court cause problems to the right handers but these would not be as
effective against Nadal who likes to play a defensive return of serve from his
forehand. Tsonga might not get as many aces on this side against Nadal. He will
try to compensate this by serving wide from the deuce court. He will get
shorter return from the backhand of Nadal, but the extra kick on them might
induce a few errors too when Tsonga goes for the kill.
Nadal is
employing his usual game where he is not aiming for too much on serve, but is rather
trying to keep a high percentage of first serves in. It was 79% against
Dmitrov. Tsonga does not have the x-factor against Nadal these days and is not
expected to play a Rosol. He may win by playing aggressively, but then Nadal
too will have to contribute by making high number of unforced errors. He
committed 36 against Dmitrov while hitting only 18 winners. It is not definite
that Tsonga will be able to take full advantage even in that scenario. Nadal
tends to do well against established players but can get a surprise from the
lower ranked players who come to face him with a “nothing to lose” attitude.
Tsonga also makes a lot of unforced errors, mostly hitting out when going for
something extra. He can stay in the rally against Nadal up to say ten shots,
beyond which he is likely to be the loser. He therefore will have to produce a
winner or force an error in about five of his shots. He has defeated Nadal on
three occasions starting from the famous Australian Open, 2008. But that was
hard court and Tsonga was as aggressive as a bull that the Spaniard could not
tame. He has played Nadal only once on clay, and that was a straight three sets
win in the Davis Cup tie in 2011 for Nadal.
If Tsonga
were to lose, it would be caused by the superior defence of Nadal. If he were
to win, it would a superlative controlled aggression from him, playing an all
court game. Dice is loaded in Nadal’s favour.
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