Australian Open 2012 Finals: Djokovic Versus Nadal - Preview

Rafael Nadal, the second seed will challenge his nemesis Novak Djokovic, the top seed, in the finals of the Australian Open 2012 on Sunday evening. He lost six finals to Djokovic in 2011. Djokovic is the defending champion.

Reasons for Nadal’s repeated defeats against Djokovic are not difficult to fathom. Djokovic has become a confident and mentally strong player in 2011. He has added something extra to his shots. He is able to anticipate Nadal’s shots and is in a comfortable position to execute his shots. Djokovic hits winners from inside the baseline, creating angles difficult to reach. Baseline rallies were the bread and butter of Nadal’s game, but he is now losing most of them against Djokovic. As the rallies progress, Nadal becomes more and more defensive and retreats more and more behind baseline. His normal length of shot lands the ball shorter and shorter. Djokovic is inside the baseline to pounce upon such short balls.

Nadal had Federer on the other side of the net on most of the occasions in the past. He developed his game to exploit Federer’s weakness. The top spin forehand to Federer’s backhand became so much of a stock shot that Nadal would instinctively play it as the bread and butter shot. Now Nadal appears to have become a prisoner of such instinctive play. The high bouncing forehand brought him trophies at the cost of Federer and also, at the French Open where such shot is otherwise too a good shot. In retrospect, by acquiring a particular winning game over Federer, team Nadal did not find it necessary to develop other type of game. Even after suffering reverses against Djokovic in the hard court tournaments before the clay season in 2011, the same game was played in the clay tournaments only to lose even more easily. The instinctive cross court forehand to Djokovic backhand became a victim of easy backhand winner from Djokovic. Djokovic has arguably the best backhand in the game, something of the calibre of David Nalbandian or Marat Safin in their prime. Nadal continued to play the same game against Djokovic to lose the finals at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open last year. In this Australian Open too, Nadal is playing the same type of game. Whether he comes out with a different strategy and is able to execute it too, will be seen on the day only.

It appears that Djokovic technique on ground strokes is simpler, straightforward and precise. His forehand shot is aimed to a point almost in a straight line and because of his fitness he is in a position to take the ball before it dips. He hits it almost in a straight line towards the intended target. Nadal lets the ball come to him and hits it in a parabola. It has its own strong and weak points. Since Djokovic reaches the ball and Nadal lets the ball reach him, one has seen Nadal being pushed from corner to corner by Djokovic in 2011. Even if they were presumed to be equally fast, Djokovic motion is straight and his posture while hitting the ball is not contrived. Since there is little set up time required, Djokovic was seen unhurried while returning Nadal shots than vice versa. Moreover, the parabola is lengthier and gives extra time to Djokovic to prepare his return. In the finals, Nadal may try to hit flatter, but he will commit more unforced errors since he has not done this in the previous rounds.

Nadal has to make adjustments when playing against somebody who has figured out his game totally. He might play inside out forehand as much as the usual cross court forehand. He might go on offensive before Djokovic does. Out and out offence is not Nadal’s game. He started as a defensive player before he honed his game to hard courts and grass. On the other hand, Djokovic has made adjustments to his game in 2011. He appears more versatile than Nadal since he is equally good on both flanks. His serves are better, physical movements are more fluid and he is constantly on attack. If Nadal is able to take the match to the fifth  set, he can hope that Djokovic might feel a bit tired after having played Andy Murray for almost five hours in the semi-final.

Nadal is the underdog, but every dog has its day.