BNP Paribas Open 2012: Federer Versus Raonic - Preview

Milos Raonic meets Roger Federer in the third round of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells. This is the first meeting between them. Raonic is billed as a future top ten player and his fans consider him capable of winning a major within two - three years. Roger Federer is playing very well and has rarely lost to somebody not in the top twenty. Raonic has a booming serve which has taken him to two titles in the last two months.  

Raonic serves high kicking second serve to the backhand which poses a bit of problem for the single fisted backhanders. Federer has been troubled by the wide serve of Rafael Nadal especially in the ad court. He might face a similar problem from Raonic. He has handled the serves of right handers well in the past, say that of players like Andy Roddick. But Raonic serve goes a bit higher. Federer is likely to employ slice return sometimes, which will not let Raonic step into the mid court to blast away easy winner in the opposite direction. Low slices have often troubled tall players.

Federer has not been unduly troubled by players who do not move well. Raonic has good reach because of height, but his mobility is not as good. Federer is likely to move him around and not let him take his best shot. Ground rallies are likely to be won more by Federer.

Raonic is likely to employ the strategy of winning service games relying on his serve capabilities. He will have to exceed one ace per service game to be in a position to win the game. Federer is a good returner and players like Ivo Karlovic have not much troubled him in the past, though Raonic is in a different category. He has a good forehand too, but he requires a good positioning to create angles with it. He is not likely to get them much. He may try to come to the net, but Federer has good acumen to pass a rushing player. Raonic does not have the volleying capabilities of say Federer, Michael Llodra, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Radek Stepanek. He will not rely much on volleys when attacking Federer. He might go in for powerful forehand from baseline. He does not play flat forehand. His forehand has top spin with low net clearance. It will be difficult to outplay Federer with that strategy.

Federer is as good a server and Raonic does not have the best return in the game. Federer will employ one - two combination behind his angled serve. Raonic does not have the running shots of Rafael Nadal or Andy Murray. If he plays aggressively, he will have to keep the shots within the court, since his aggressive shots sometimes tend to sail beyond the baseline.

Federer is unlikely to play a losing game and it would depend on how well Raonic plays on the day. If he serves in the vicinity of 70% with two aces per service game, he can put pressure on Federer’s serve.  It is going to be an absorbing contest, but advantage lies with Federer.