Wimbledon 2012: Federer Versus Murray - Finals Preview

Roger Federer, the six time champion will take on the first time finalist Andy Murray in the finals on Sunday, the 8^th July. Federer defeated Novak Djokovic in four sets whereas Murray prevailed over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga also in four sets in the semi-finals. They have played each other fifteen times with Murray leading 8-7. However, Federer has defeated Murray in straight sets in the two Grand Slam majors they have played, both being the finals.

In the semi-finals, Federer served first serves at 64%, whereas Murray served at 60%. The figure has varied for Federer between 62% and 70%, whereas for Murray it has varied from 60% to 67% during the six matches played. The first serve percentage for Murray is likely to improve in the finals from the semi-finals where the first serve percentage was his lowest. Federer served 12 aces in 19 service games whereas Murray served 9 aces in 20 service games in the semi-finals. However, this is not a comparison since aces also depend upon the returning capability of the opponent and Djokovic is known to be a better returner than Tsonga. It can at best be taken as an indicator of the confidence of the server in his serve capabilities. Federer has served brilliantly in the semi-finals.  

It has been heard in the past that Murray plays two types of games, one that takes him up to the finals of a Grand Slam major and the other which makes him lose the finals. This might have come from both detractors as well as ardent fans of Murray. Ever since the hiring of Ivan Lendl as coach, the audience has been keenly observing the changes, if any, which have occurred in Murray’s game. If they have not been able to discover much, it can be condoned since if it were true, coaching schools will start getting undue share of credit or blame for the performance of the player. In any case, a battle scarred Murray might not have hands of butter in the finals.

Federer not only served brilliantly but played an attacking game without committing many errors in the semi-finals. He dictated the play and Djokovic fell into a trap to play at his pace. Rafael Nadal always plays at his own pace and does not succumb to Federer’s style. Federer is a fast starter and before the opponent realises, he is generally a break up. Murray is a slow starter generally, though he surprised all by going for the kill from the start against Tsonga. He was a slow starter in his previous matches. In the quarterfinals against David Ferrer, he was constantly trailing in the first two sets. It was possible to come back against Ferrer, but against Federer, yielding an inch would be like yielding a yard. Since Murray does not have put away weapons, he has to play all points as match points. Even a temporary dip in the level of play can cause irreversible damage. This did happen in his match against Tsonga, who stole the third set and gained in confidence. Federer is not as vulnerable since he has lethal weapons. He has a significantly wider margin for error and much greater capability for recovering from a losing position. Murray not only has to shut the door but has to keep it shut till the very end.

Federer’s losses apart from Nadal and Djokovic have been mostly to players who hit the ball hard. There is something common between Juan Martin Del Potro, Tomas Berdych, Robin Soderling and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Murray does not have that weaponry. His eight victories over Federer to seven losses cannot be taken as shining beacons per se, but they might serve effectively to devise a game plan. It is a common knowledge that Federer is a different player in Grand Slam majors. His match temperament is unmatched. He is focused and is well aware of the golden opportunity that has presented itself with ouster of Rafael Nadal in the early rounds. On the other hand, Murray is carrying a lot of burden, irrespective of whatever he or others might say in public. The expression on his face and the body language after victory in the semi-finals can be revisited to confirm this.

Federer is a front runner. Even against Nadal, he is the one who gets the break point first. Djokovic could not prevent it in the semi-finals, but Julien Benneteau was successful in the second round to go two sets up. It is difficult to see Murray doing a Benneteau, though he can be as much inspired. Benneteau had nothing to lose, whereas the stakes are much higher for Murray. He also has the burden of criticism that he is not aggressive. If his priority gets displaced to answer that criticism rather than playing to win, it would be suicidal. He will definitely not come out with a defeatist attitude that one could sense in Xavier Malisse or Mikhail Youzhny, but also not with the confidence of Rafael Nadal. He will try to make amends to his previous meetings with Federer in the Grand Slam majors by being more motivated and hard working.

Federer’s semi-final was played with roof closed and Murray’s semi-final was in open condition. Closed roof might give some advantage to Federer, who has always excelled in indoor type of conditions. Open roof will provide a level playing field.  

Federer is the favourite to win his seventeenth Grand Slam major, but Murray will let him win it only “over my dead body”. If Murray puts in an inspired performance, he would be the last man standing.